How Sisra calculates the KS4 measures

Sisra Analytics works out each pupil’s KS4 measures when a data set is published with headlines, following the DfE’s rules for the year you choose. This page explains each measure in plain terms, then the detail, with a worked example you can check. The last section lists where Sisra’s figures can differ from the DfE’s.

Where the figures come from

Sisra calculates the measures when you publish, not when you open a report. It stores each pupil’s Attainment 8, Progress 8 and other measures. A report then averages or counts these for the pupils you select, such as a class or the disadvantaged pupils.

Three rules shape every headline figure:

• only data published with Headlines on, and a DfE Rules from: year chosen, has headline figures
• headline figures count pupils with the status On Roll, so guests and leavers are left out
• only grades in grade methods with Attainment 8 points can count, and never grades in qualifications matched as Unapproved

Each grade’s points come from its grade method, and Sisra divides them by the qualification’s entries. GCSE grades 9 to 1 are worth 9 to 1 points, at one entry each. A combined science grade of 6-5 is worth 11 points over 2 entries, so 5.5 a grade.

Two views of the same grades

Sisra reads a pupil’s grades in two ways:

View	Which grades count	Where it is used
School performance	First entries, after discounting, under the DfE rules year	Headline measures: Attainment 8, Progress 8, English and maths, English Baccalaureate (EBacc) and value added
Student performance	Each pupil’s best grade in each qualification	The Grades area and on track

So a pupil who resat maths shows their best grade in the Grades area, but their first entry in the headline figures. Residuals use every grade, including discounted ones, and include guests.

The DfE rules year

DfE Rules from: sets which year’s DfE rules Sisra follows. They decide which entries count, how discounting works and the pass thresholds for older letter grades. As at October 2026 the options are 2022, 2018, 2017 and 2016. Choose the year your pupils are reported in, or the most recent year if theirs is not listed. So every cohort reported in 2022 or later uses 2022.

The 2022 rules count results dated in August 2021 as entries worth no points. No cohort still in school has results that old.

Attainment 8

Attainment 8 adds up a pupil’s points in eight qualifications, with English and maths counting twice. That makes ten slots. Dividing the total by 10 gives Average Attainment 8 Grade, the pupil’s average grade per slot.

Slots	What can fill them	How they count
English (2)	The better of English language and English literature	Double weighted only if the pupil took both. Otherwise the grade counts once and the second slot is empty
Maths (2)	The pupil’s best maths grade	Always double weighted
EBacc (3)	The best three of the sciences, computer science, history, geography and languages	Combined science can fill two slots
Open (3)	The best three remaining approved qualifications, including the other English grade and further EBacc subjects	Non-GCSE qualifications, such as technical awards, can count only here

Sisra fills the English and maths slots first, then the EBacc slots, then the open slots. It ranks grades by points per entry, and a grade used in one slot cannot count in another. Empty slots score 0, and Average Attainment 8 Grade still divides by 10. If two grades tie for the last slot, the qualification first in alphabetical order takes it; the score is the same either way.

Progress 8

Progress 8 compares a pupil’s Attainment 8 with the average Attainment 8 of pupils nationally who had similar KS2 results. That average is the pupil’s estimate. Progress 8 is the gap between the two, divided by 10:

Progress 8 = (Attainment 8 − estimate) ÷ 10

A score of 0 means the pupil did as well as similar pupils nationally. A score of +1 means about one grade better in each qualification, and −1 about one grade worse. The DfE now calls the estimates “Attainment 8 averages”.

KS2 prior attainment

A pupil’s prior attainment is the average of their KS2 English reading and maths scaled scores: the subjects nominated as Core on Baseline Management. A pupil with only one result takes that score. Sisra uses the average to find the pupil’s estimate, and for the KS2 Banding filter:

Band	Average KS2 scaled score
Lower	Below 100
Middle	100 or more, but below 110
Upper/High	110 or more

These match the DfE’s low, middle and high prior attainment groups. A pupil with no KS2 result counts in Attainment 8 but not in Progress 8. Pupils Included (Progress 8 Coverage) shows how many pupils have a result.

Estimates

You choose the estimates when you publish, in A8 Estimates::

Group	What it holds
Official Estimates:	The DfE’s averages for a year, such as 2024
Data Collaboration:	Averages from schools in Sisra Data Collaboration, such as 2024 Collab - Exams
Custom Estimates:	Your school’s own estimates

The DfE publishes each year’s averages with the provisional results, in the autumn after the exams. So a year 11 cohort’s own estimates arrive only after it has left, and until then its Progress 8 uses another set. What returns for 2026 to 2027 gives Juniper Education’s advice for the 26/27 cohort.

Element scores, school figures and confidence limits

Each part of Attainment 8 has its own Progress 8 score, against its own estimate:

Element	Calculation
English	(English points − English estimate) ÷ 2
Maths	(maths points − maths estimate) ÷ 2
EBacc	(EBacc points − EBacc estimate) ÷ 3
Open	(open points − open estimate) ÷ 3

Average Total Progress 8 is the average of the included pupils’ scores, shown to 2 decimal places. Sisra adds 95% confidence limits: the average plus or minus 1.96 × the national standard deviation ÷ √(pupils included). If the limits span 0, the school’s score is not significantly different from the national average.

Adjusted scores

Since 2018 the DfE has limited how far a very negative score can pull down a school’s average. An estimate set can hold a minimum score for each prior attainment group. Sisra replaces any overall score below the minimum with the minimum, and marks it Adj. Pupils with Adjusted Progress 8 Scores counts these pupils, and Average Total Progress 8 (Unadjusted) gives the school figure without the limit. Element scores are not adjusted, and custom estimates have no minimums.

The report’s own help says adjusted scores apply only with the DfE’s official estimates from 2018 onwards. With any other estimates, it says, Average Total Progress 8 matches the unadjusted figure. But the 2025 and 2026 Data Collaboration sets hold minimums, for KS2 averages of 100.5 and above. On the Headlines Summary, the collaboration’s own columns show some pupils with adjusted scores. This guide could not confirm whether a school’s own Progress 8 is adjusted with those sets.

A worked example

Two fictional pupils at the demo school took only GCSEs graded 9 to 1. The estimates are made up for the example.

Attainment 8

Tamsin Okoro’s grades were English language 6, English literature 5, maths 7, combined science 6-5, history 4, French 3, art 6 and religious studies 5.

Slot	Grade used	Points
English (double)	English language 6, double weighted because she also took literature	12
Maths (double)	Maths 7	14
EBacc 1 and 2	Combined science 6-5, at 5.5 a slot	11
EBacc 3	History 4	4
Open 1	Art 6	6
Open 2	English literature 5	5
Open 3	Religious studies 5	5
Total		57

French 3 is her fourth EBacc subject, and higher grades fill her open slots. Her Attainment 8 is 57 and her Average Attainment 8 Grade is 5.7.

Ravi Hollins took English language 4 but not English literature, maths 4, combined science 4-4, geography 3, art 5 and drama 4.

Slot	Grade used	Points
English	English language 4, counted once because he did not take literature	4
Maths (double)	Maths 4	8
EBacc 1 and 2	Combined science 4-4	8
EBacc 3	Geography 3	3
Open 1	Art 5	5
Open 2	Drama 4	4
Open 3	Empty	0
Total		32

Ravi’s Attainment 8 is 32 and his average grade is 3.2. His second English slot and third open slot are empty, but they still count in the division by 10.

Progress 8

Tamsin’s KS2 scaled scores were 104 in reading and 98 in maths, an average of 101.0. Ravi’s were 94 and 93, an average of 93.5. Suppose the estimates for their prior attainment groups are 47.3 and 37.5.

Pupil	Attainment 8	Estimate	Progress 8
Tamsin	57	47.3	(57 − 47.3) ÷ 10 = +0.97
Ravi	32	37.5	(32 − 37.5) ÷ 10 = −0.55

If these were the only two pupils, Average Total Progress 8 would be (0.97 − 0.55) ÷ 2 = +0.21.

Ravi’s English element shows what a missing literature entry costs. With an English estimate of 7.6, his English Progress 8 is (4 − 7.6) ÷ 2 = −1.80.

For the confidence limits, suppose 150 pupils are included, with an average of +0.21 and a national standard deviation of 1.42. The interval is 1.96 × 1.42 ÷ √150 = 0.23, so the limits are −0.02 and +0.44. The limits span 0, so this score is not significantly different from the national average.

English and maths

This measure counts the pupils with a given grade or above in both English and maths. Sisra reports three versions: Students Achieving 9-4 in English and Maths, and the same at 9-5 and 9-7. The DfE’s headline measure is grade 5 or above, which a 2017 letter from the Secretary of State called a “strong pass”. It also publishes grade 4 or above, the “standard pass”.

For English, Sisra takes the pupil’s best grade in English language or English literature, and one of them is enough. Percentages are of the whole cohort. The Grades area divides by the number of grades instead, so its figures can differ.

Tamsin, with English 6 and maths 7, counts at 9-4 and 9-5 but not at 9-7. Ravi, with 4 in both, counts at 9-4 only. So 2 of 2 pupils (100%) reach 9-4, and 1 of 2 (50%) reach 9-5.

EBacc

The EBacc shows whether pupils took, and passed, GCSEs in English, maths, science, a language, and history or geography. The DfE announced on 4 November 2025 that the EBacc is leaving its headline accountability measures. Its response to the KS4 consultation was still awaited on 15 October 2026. Sisra still reports the EBacc, which helps comparisons with past years, but do not treat it as a target.

In Sisra:

• a pupil is entered if they have all six slots: English (both language and literature), maths, two sciences, a language, and history or geography
• the two science slots need combined science, or at least three of biology, chemistry, physics and computer science
• the standard pass needs grade 4 or above in every slot, and the strong pass grade 5 or above
• combined science needs 4-4 or better for the standard pass, and 5-5 or better for the strong pass
• the EBacc average point score (APS) adds up the six slots’ points and divides by 6, with 0 for any slot not entered

Average Points Score Per EBacc Slot for COHORT averages the APS of every pupil in the cohort, entered or not.

Tamsin is entered, with English language and literature, maths, combined science, French and history. French 3 is below grade 4, so she does not achieve the EBacc at either level. Her EBacc APS is (6 + 7 + 5.5 + 5.5 + 3 + 4) ÷ 6 = 5.17.

Ravi took no language and no English literature, so he is not entered. His APS is (0 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 0 + 3) ÷ 6 = 2.50, because his English and language slots score 0.

EBacc value added

For science, humanities and languages, Sisra also calculates value added. It is the pupil’s points in that slot minus the estimate for pupils with the same KS2 prior attainment. The estimates come from VA Estimates:, chosen when you publish. Science uses the average of the pupil’s two science grades. The school’s figure averages the pupils entered for that slot who have a KS2 result.

Five-pass measures

Students achieving 5 Standard Passes inc EM and Students achieving 5 Strong Passes inc EM are Sisra’s own measures. They show how pupils would have done on the old measure of five A* to C grades including English and maths. The DfE no longer publishes that measure.

A pupil needs grade 4 or above in English and maths (5 for strong passes), and at least five qualifications at that level in all. Each qualification counts once, so combined science is one pass. Older letter grades count at C or above, and other qualifications count with a level 2 pass.

Tamsin has seven qualifications at grade 4 or above and six at grade 5 or above, so she achieves both. Ravi has five at grade 4 or above, including English and maths, so he achieves five standard passes but not five strong passes.

First entry and discounting

The DfE gives credit for each course of study once, and counts a pupil’s first attempt. Sisra applies the same rules to the headline measures, so a pupil’s headline total can be lower than the sum of their grades.

Rule	What it does
First entry	For each qualification, the grade with the earliest results date counts. A later resit does not replace it, even if it is higher. If two grades share a date, the better one counts
Discount codes	Qualifications with the same DfE discount code count once between them. A level 3 qualification, such as an AS level, beats a lower one; otherwise first entry decides
Pathways	English, maths and science can be taken by different routes, such as combined science or separate sciences. Sisra keeps one route for each: the first taken, then the best
Manual discounting	An administrator can discount a grade by hand in Grades > Grades Management > Discounting, which overrides the rules

Dates matter. Each grade takes its date from the file it was uploaded in, so upload each exam series as a separate file. Sisra reads each qualification’s discount code from its qualification number (QN) on the Matching page. Check and correct grades explains how to change a grade’s date. The DfE’s discounting and early entry guidance for 2026 measures was updated on 5 October 2026.

Residuals

A residual compares a pupil’s result in one qualification with their own average across all their qualifications. A positive residual means the pupil did better in that subject than they did on average.

A pupil’s residual in a qualification is its points per entry minus the pupil’s average points per entry. A class, qualification or faculty residual is the average of its pupils’ residuals. Sisra keeps official Attainment 8 points and your own custom points apart. Residuals include guests and discounted grades, and the Residual Excl. tab can leave chosen qualifications out of the average.

Ravi’s points per entry are English language 4, maths 4, combined science 4, geography 3, art 5 and drama 4. His average is 24 ÷ 6 = 4.0, so his residual is +1.0 in art, −1.0 in geography and 0 elsewhere.

Residuals compare subjects within your school, not with other schools, and each pupil’s residuals add up to zero. Good practice with school data explains how to read them.

Subject Progress Index

The Subject Progress Index (SPI) compares a pupil’s grade in a subject with the average grade of similar pupils in Sisra Data Collaboration. Similar pupils are those with the same KS2 prior attainment who took the same subject. It is Sisra’s own measure: the DfE publishes no estimates for single subjects, so there is no official subject Progress 8.

A pupil’s SPI is their grade’s points minus that average. A grade 6 against an average of 5.2 gives an SPI of +0.8. A class or subject SPI is the average of its pupils’ SPIs, and Positive SPI counts the grades on 0 or more.

SPI needs:

• the data set published with Data Collaboration on
• a KS2 result for the pupil
• an average built from at least 10 grades in the collaboration, or Sisra hides it; averages from 10 to 24 grades carry a warning

SPI also differs from Progress 8 in what it covers. Only pupils with a grade in the subject count, and English language and English literature have separate SPIs. The averages come from the schools that took part: 1,594 in 2024. About Sisra Data Collaboration explains where the averages come from.

Where Sisra differs from the DfE

Sisra follows the DfE’s rules, but its figures can still differ from the DfE’s:

Area	Sisra	DfE
Source data	The files you upload and publish	Exam boards’ results, checked by schools in the June and October checking exercises, including late results and re-marks
Timing	Whenever you publish	Provisional in October, revised early the following year
Estimates	The set you choose when publishing, often an earlier year’s	The averages for the pupils’ own year
Other estimates	Data Collaboration and custom estimates	Not used
Adjusted scores	With official estimates from 2018 onwards; never with custom sets; not confirmed with Data Collaboration sets	Applied since 2018
Very early entries	First entry applies to every dated result	For 2026 measures, first entry does not apply to qualifications certificated in winter 2023 or earlier
Five-pass measures	Reported	Not published
Subject Progress Index	Reported	No subject-level measure
2025 and 2026 leavers	Progress 8 only if you upload unofficial KS2 scores	No Progress 8

To find why a Progress 8 figure differs, compare pupil by pupil rather than school averages. Check each pupil’s KS2 prior attainment, the estimates and the qualifications in each slot. Troubleshooting covers the usual causes.

Related pages

• Attainment 8 and Progress 8 reports
• Basics, EBacc, value added and AtL reports
• Progress 8 for cohorts without KS2 results
• Publish data to the reports
• Match qualifications in KS3/4